By Matthew Dubas
The following commentary is in response to a recent NBC News report entitled Ukraine Puts Army on Alert as Russia Heats Up Crimea Stalemate.
Cool heads prevail.
Most of the experts on the ground
are saying this is simply a provocation, and a show of force (and
speedy deployment) in the face of NATO in the Black Sea. Russia has also
accused Ukraine of fomenting an attack on Crimea, but there is no
evidence to support Russia's claims.
As Russia
courts Turkey, Crimea is on the table, and Turkey, for its proclaimed
alliance with the Crimean Tatars, would prove to be an additional
sticking point to Russia-Turkey relations, as Russia dangles Gazprom
pipelines through Turkey to EU. Turkey is not on the same page as Russia
with regard to the Assad regime, and Turkey's support for anti-Assad
fighters in Syria. Meanwhile, ISIS and Russia continue aggression in
the region. A stalemate in Syria is the motivator for new action in
Crimea, as it appeals more to the Russian public's nationalistic pride
that Putin is manipulating through propaganda media.
Putin
is saber-rattling to the international community (NATO, EU, UN
specifically) for them to forget that Crimea was ever part of Ukraine or
ever will be. While Putin is alive, the idea of retaking Crimea would
be a bloody one. But we can also confirm Putin's military plans for
Crimea are long term for Russia (that is until the money really dries
up, and Putin becomes increasingly desperate to maintain power).
Matthew Dubas is editor of the nationally-distributed publication The
Ukrainian Weekly. The newspaper is also distributed throughout Canada
and serves as a major source of news and information for the Ukrainian
community in America and abroad. He has reported on many of the
country’s political and social conflicts and worked with ambassadors,
politicians, policy advisors, activists and scholars on a range of
issues concerning Ukraine. The views expressed by Mr. Dubas do not necessarily reflect those of the publication's management or editorial staff.
