First Read: Three Weeks to Go, Three Margin-of-Error Races

 

By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann

 

First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter

 

Under Pressure

Three weeks to go until the first nominating contest, and we have three margin-of-error races, according to new NBC/WSJ/Marist early-state polls released on Sunday. In Iowa on the Republican side, Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump by four points among likely caucus-goers, 28%-24%, with Marco Rubio at 13% and Ben Carson at 11%. In Iowa on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is ahead of Bernie Sanders by just three points, 48%-45%, with Martin O'Malley at 5%. In New Hampshire, Sanders leads Clinton by four points, 50%-46%. The only early-state race NOT within in the margin of error is the GOP contest in the Granite State, where Donald Trump is ahead by 16 points. But get this: He's followed by Rubio at 14%, Chris Christie at 12%, Ted Cruz at 10%, and John Kasich and Jeb Bush are tied at 9% each. That's five candidates splitting 54% of the vote, and four establishment-backed candidates (Rubio, Christie, Kasich, Bush) dividing up 44%. 

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Source: NBC News