Tuesday, March 29, 2016

First Read: Why Wisconsin is the New New Hampshire

First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
 
One week out, all eyes on the Badger State Battle

Spring break is officially in the rearview mirror for the 2016 candidates, with every remaining presidential hopeful hitting the trail in Wisconsin. The Badger State is almost taking on a role like New Hampshire: Because it's the only state voting in an otherwise empty stretch, it's less about delegate math than it is about momentum on both sides. It feels like we're coming out of halftime and the next scoring opportunity offers the team that seizes it a chance to reset. For Republicans, the #NeverTrump movement has to prove it's got the juice to slow the frontrunner's momentum, because they're going to have a much harder time stopping him if they don't change this narrative fast. Meanwhile, Trump hopes to make plays in areas like Green Bay and Paul Ryan's hometown of Janesville to flex his muscles with traditional and non-traditional GOP base voters alike. By the way, watch for the complex rules of GOP delegate allocation to influence how the campaigns operate. While 18 of the state's 42 delegates will be awarded to the statewide winner, the majority - 24 delegates - will be allocated to the winners in specific congressional districts. That means that candidates are likely to hammer away at the areas of the state where they feel they have best chance of racking up a CD win. And, of course, keep an eye out today too for Gov. Scott Walker's "formal decision" in the GOP primary. 

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