First Read is a morning briefing from Meet
the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important
political stories and why they matter.
Get ready for a longer-than-expected Democratic race
On Friday afternoon, the Clinton campaign made two arguments to First Read
why Bernie Sanders isn't Barack Obama 2.0 -- 1) he doesn't have the
same ability to galvanize African-American voters, and 2) they're not
going to let him dominate the caucus contests. But there's a bigger
takeaway here: The Clinton campaign is acknowledging that it's preparing
for a long race where it will have to grind out a win against Sanders.
Even under a best-case scenario for Clinton (winning the delegates
proportionally by, say, a 60%-40% margin), that means we won't see a
true Dem winner until April or May. So regardless if you believe Sanders
is ahead in Iowa by eight points (as last week's CNN poll showed), if you believe that Clinton is up by 29 (as the Loras College poll showed),
or if it's somewhere in the middle, Clinton-vs.-Sanders is a storyline
we'll likely see for the next three to four months. But do remember
under that proportional system, if one side takes the clear lead -- and
the Clinton camp is eyeing the March 1 contests (Alabama, Arkansas,
Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia) -- it's hard to lose it.
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Source: NBC News
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