First Read is a morning briefing from Meet
the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important
political stories and why they matter.
Trump is way ahead in GOP race. And he's only going to get stronger
The political headline of the morning is that
Donald Trump is now leading the Republican presidential field by 20
points, according to a new CNN poll.
Trump stands at 36% in the poll (up 9 points since October), while Ted
Cruz is at 16% (up 12), Ben Carson at 14% (down 8), Marco Rubio at 12%
(up 4), Chris Christie at 4% (unchanged), and at Jeb Bush 3% (down 5).
It's Trump's biggest lead in any live-telephone national poll. And
here's the thing: He's likely to only get stronger, given that this poll
was taken BEFORE the San Bernardino shootings. Why do we say that?
According to the poll, more Republicans (46%) think he can handle ISIS
better than his closest competition (Cruz at 15%); more Republicans
(48%) think he's better on illegal immigration than his closest
competitor (Rubio at 14%); and more Republicans (30%) see him better on
foreign policy than anyone else (Cruz at 17%). Now we have two important
caveats: One, CNN's GOP screen here consists of registered Republican
voters and GOP-leaning independents. Trump's numbers have always been
higher among GOP-leaning indies than core Republicans. Are these
independents going to turn out in Republican caucuses and primaries? Are
these independents going to turn out in Republican caucuses and
primaries? Two, we recall when our national Dec. 2011 NBC/WSJ poll had
Newt Gingrich up 17 points over Mitt Romney. Then again, Newt Gingrich
isn't Donald Trump…
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Source: NBC News
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