First Read is a morning briefing from Meet
the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important
political stories and why they matter.
Insurgents remain on top of GOP race
With two months to go until the Iowa caucuses,
here's another reality check on the state of the 2016 race: The
Republican insurgents (Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz) are still
beating the GOP establishment (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie) --
in the polls, in excitement, and in energy. Sure, two months is a long
time in American politics (Newt Gingrich was leading Mitt Romney in the
Dec. 2011 national NBC/WSJ poll by 17 points!!!). And, yes, what's been a
surprising and strange race will likely become even more surprising and
stranger. But the only candidates who have truly surged so far in this
GOP contest have been the insurgents. So where is the excitement and
energy on the establishment side? When will, say, Marco Rubio shoot up
in an early-state poll the same way we saw, say, Ted Cruz in the most
recent Quinnipiac poll of Iowa
-- despite Rubio's recent endorsements and his impressive debate
performances? It's more than possible that Rubio (or Jeb) could win the
GOP nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire -- something
that's never happened before in modern times on the Republican side.
Such a scenario would prove the political scientists right that,
ultimately, "the party decides." But until then, we're still waiting for
the establishment hype around Rubio among the insider crowd to
translate into something tangible in the polls or on the ground. Then
again, maybe simply being seen as even having a toe in the establishment
is enough to chase away primary voters. Nothing can be assumed at this
point.
Click here for the full article.
Source: NBC News
No comments:
Post a Comment