'Restraint is a Good Idea for All Parties Concerned'

 

Expert on Korean Region Breaks Down Latest Conflict and Expresses Serious Concern

A FROM THE G-MAN EXCLUSIVE

The tense situation between the two Koreas has reached a new level, with North Korea threatening to take "special action" against South Korea and "reduce them to ashes".

The latest war of words has many wondering if it's only a matter of time before tensions boil over and a full-scale war erupts. 

In order to better assess the conflict and the seriousness of North Korea's latest threats, From The G-Man contacted Charles K. Armstrong, the Korea Foundation Professor of Korean Studies in the Social Sciences at Columbia University in New York City.

 Dr. Charles K. Armstrong

Dr. Armstrong specializes in modern Korean, East Asian and international history. He has served as a special guest commentator for this news and information site on two previous occasions, and From The G-Man proudly welcomes him back for an analysis of the current crisis and a discussion on how the United States and its allies could be impacted.  

G-Man: Recent news reports have indicated that the international community believes the threats by the North Korean government are nothing more than an attempt to save face in the wake of its missile launch fiasco. Do you agree, or should the threats be taken more seriously?

Armstrong:  Saving face is part of it, but the regime seems to feel it needs more than ever to show the world it won't be trifled with and can defend itself. North Korea is not likely to attack anyone unprovoked, but it has a very low threshold for what it considers "provocation", such as military exercises conducted by the U.S. and South Korean. We need to be very careful that tensions don't escalate, which requires restraint on all sides.

G-Man: United States Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has urged the North Korean government to avoid doing anything that might cause further tension in the region. Do you suspect his request will not be heeded, especially when you consider the fact that the North Korean regime and military are undergoing a transition in power? 

Armstrong: It should be clear by now that North Korea does what it wants and isn't likely to pay much attention to an American Secretary of Defense. That doesn't mean North Korea is going to act irrationally or suicidally, but it can lash out if it feels cornered. Again, restraint is a good idea for all parties concerned, not just North Korea.

G-Man: Who is primarily responsible for the threats being made against South Korea -- and most recently the United States and its allies? Is it Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un or "hawkish" officials within the North Korean government? 

Armstrong: Hard to say. It's not clear that there are strong divisions within the North Korean leadership, but Kim Jong Un has to keep the army happy above all, and when push comes to shove, the Supreme Leader will side with the military -- which tends to be more "hawkish" than other parts of the government.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un

G-Man: Kim Jong Un, is only 28. He's the youngest head of state in the world. Will his impressive educational and military background be enough to keep many world leaders from viewing him as "a snot-nosed kid that has no business leading a country"?

Armstrong: It's going to take some time for Kim Jong Un to build up his credentials and be taken seriously.  If he's like his father, he won't take much to the public spotlight anyway. Interestingly, when former South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's family came for Kim Jong Il's funeral, Kim Jong Un made of point of shaking hands and trading words with Kim Dae Jung's grandson, who's about his age. His youth might actually make him more appealing to younger South Koreans.

G-Man: Based on what you know about the Supreme Leader, what concerns you most -- regarding his role as a leader and as a person? 

Armstrong: I do worry that he's in over his head and could make rash decisions, but so far he's being protected and guided by close relatives and members of his father's inner circle. Eventually, he'll break out of that cocoon and we'll see what kind of leader he really is.

G-Man: Consider the following: You're an advisor to the President, and North Korea successfully launches another long-ranged missile. What other options, since sanctions clearly aren't working, would you present to President Obama to deal with North Korea's acts of defiance?

Armstrong: This is why I'm happy not to be in politics. All the U.S. can really do is close ranks with our allies and wait until things calm down, then try negotiation again. Eventually, this problem has to be solved, and neither sanctions nor military action are the answer.

G-Man: North Korea has conducted nuclear tests and launched missiles for years, much to the chagrin of the U.S. and other countries. The Obama Administration has basically "stood down" when it comes to North Korea, but they've made it abundantly clear that similar actions by the Iranian government would not be tolerated and that every option would be considered to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Why has North Korea been allowed to get away with so much for so long?

Armstrong: Iran is a special case, given the volatile nature of the Middle East and the U.S. relationship with Israel. North Korea seems like something easier to "contain."

Flag of North Korea

G-Man: If North Korea attacks its neighbors in the south, what do you suspect the Obama Administration will do, first and foremost?

Armstrong: I can't imagine any scenario under which North Korea would launch a major attack on South Korea, unless it was attacked first. A new war on the peninsula could be catastrophic for the South and North alike. But if war did break out, the American response would have to be quick and powerful -- hopefully without the use of nuclear weapons. If North Korea itself decides to use nukes, all bets are off. I wouldn't even want to think about it.

G-Man: I've asked you this before, Dr. Armstrong, and I'm going to ask you again. If South Korea is attacked, on a scale of one to ten, how likely is it that the attack could launch World War III?

Armstrong: I don't think it would lead to WORLD War III, since the Russians and others would not be involved, but the Chinese probably would, along with the Japanese. The result would be a catastrophic REGIONAL (East Asian) war. Millions could die. Bottom line is: war is NOT an option, and we should be doing everything possible to avoid it.

North Korean soldiers photo courtesy of:
http://thoughtsonopsmgr.blogspot.com

Dr. Charles Armstrong photo courtesy of: http://history.columbia.edu/fac-bios/Armstrong/faculty.html

Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un photo courtesy of:http://3.bp.blogspot.com

North Korean flag image courtesy of Wikipedia