First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
The first GOP debate is the new Ames Straw Poll
For political observers who are pleased that the Republican Party's Ames Straw Poll no longer exists, here's a question to chew on: Is the first GOP debate on Aug. 6 -- limited to the Top 10 in national polls -- a suitable replacement? After all, that is what the first debate has essentially become. Think about it: It will serve to winnow the Republican field just as the Ames poll did. (So instead of Tim Pawlenty dropping out of the 2012 race because he can't beat fellow Minnesotan Michele Bachmann in the straw poll, you're likely going to see GOP candidates drop out, or at least lose support from donors, from being left off the first debate stage.) In addition, just like candidates would spend big bucks on the Ames Straw Poll, we've seen the GOP candidates and outside groups backing them spend nearly $8 million in TV advertisements -- mostly to boost their poll numbers. Of course, the money spent on the Ames Straw Poll went to the Iowa Republican Party, to help build the party before the caucuses. But what is this new money spent on? Answer: Building name ID for the candidates.
Huckabee doesn't back down from controversial comment
The other unintended consequence of the eligibility criteria for that first debate is that most of the GOP presidential candidates are DESEPERATE to get attention. See Mike Huckabee, who on "Today" this morning refused to back down from his controversial comments equating the Iran nuclear deal to the Nazis sending Holocaust victims to the "oven." Huckabee told NBC's Matt Lauer, "The response from Jewish people has been overwhelming positive." Ask yourself: For Huckabee's poll standing and fundraising, has his controversial remark been a success or failure? He's picked a fight with the Democratic president; he's fundraised off it; and he's now appeared on national TV. Folks, get ready for more.
Who's in (and who's out) for that first GOP debate
As mentioned above, the first GOP presidential debate is restricted to the candidates who are in the Top 10 of averaged national polling as of Aug. 4 at 5:00 pm ET. And here is where that race to make the debate stands after we crunched the numbers from the last five national polls that meet NBC's standards:
- Trump: 18%
- Bush 14%
- Walker 10.6%
- Rubio 6.2%
- Paul 6%
- Cruz 6%
- Huckabee 5.6%
- Carson 5.2%
- Christie 3%
- Perry 2.2%
- Kasich 2%
- Santorum 1.6%
- Jindal 1.4%
- Fiorina 0.8%
- Graham 0.2%
Source: NBC News
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