Update: Ukraine's Presidential Elections and the Oleg Sentsov Case

By Matthew Dubas

The Incumbent and the Actor

Ukraine’s presidential elections have drawn criticism from international observers, but not because of lack of fairness, openness or transparency (irritating Moscow, as its cyberattacks against the Central Election Commission on March 31 were ineffective). Most recently one candidate, Voldymyr Zelensky, decided not to show up for a public debate on April 14 at a 70,000-seat arena – Olympic Stadium – in Kyiv. Zelensky claims that he preferred an April 19 date, just two days before the second round of elections on April 21. (The media in Ukraine are required to remain silent in the last days of the campaign and would not be able to analyze claims made by Zelensky. Even broadcast of the debate would be questionable, according to Ukraine’s election laws.)

Incumbent President Petro Poroshenko used Zelensky’s absence from the April 14 debate to label his opponent as a “virtual candidate.”

Poroshenko finished in second place in the first round of elections with nearly 15 percent, compared to over 30 percent for his neophyte challenger Zelensky. The first round, observers have said, showed the dissatisfaction with Poroshenko’s first term in office – citing complaints against his failure to fulfill campaign promises when he was elected in 2014 – especially his promises to end the war in the Donbas and return Crimea to Ukraine.

However, some observers have stated that Ukraine’s electorate are setting themselves up for disappointment once again by placing their hopes on a political novice like Zelensky (a comedian and star of a popular satire called “Servant of the People”), whose campaign funding has been questionable, with many experts pointing to Igor Kolomoisky, who has an ongoing personal spat with Poroshenko. (Kolomoisky comes from the same oblast or province of Ukraine as Zelensky – Dnipro. Kolomoisky was the former governor appointed by Poroshenko and fell out of favor with the president after Kolomoisky threatened to protect his assets in the region by force of his own personal guard of 30,000 troops. Kolomoisky was subsequently ousted from office by Poroshenko.)

The show, Servant of the People, has been considered by some in Ukraine as a propaganda tool funded in part by Kremlin insiders and Kolomoisky. Some have called on the show to be cancelled, as the show’s funding violates Ukrainian laws. On April 7, NGO Myrotvorets Center published the fourth part of their “Operation Regata” alleging they had discovered and confirmed the fact that, Zelensky was partially funded by Russia via a cryptocurrency trading site owned by a former pro-Russian mercenary in the Donbas. The proof came from an e-mail box on the Russian webmail service mail.ru, which Myrotvorets hacked and monitored for an unknown period of time.

Most notably, Zelensky’s campaign handlers have made a concerted effort to shield the candidate from uncomfortable questions while on the campaign trail – further raising suspicions of who is funding the candidate, and questions about Zelensky’s political stance of relevant issues of immediate concern for Ukraine’s electorate, such as the war in the Donbas, Crimea, pensions, anti-corruption reforms, EU/NATO stance, etc.

The second round has everyone biting their nails, but it is believed that the second round will be taken more seriously, as there are only two candidates in this run-off, and more voters are expected at the polls, both in Ukraine and at its diplomatic posts around the world, where citizens of Ukraine are eligible to vote. It is expected that voter turnout may be higher in the second round than in the first round, but no one is counting their chickens yet.

Zelensky’s choice to shun the debate was also a calculated move to draw comparison with Poroshenko, who refused to attend a debate in the 2014 presidential elections. Many in Ukraine have asked, “If Zelensky fears people, questions and issues, how does he expect to become a servant of the people?”

Zelensky’s team called the April 14 debate a “campaign rally” for Poroshenko, adding, “We do not attend campaign rallies” of our opponent.

On April 10, Oleh Medvedev, a campaign organizer for Poroshenko, said the incumbent president would definitely arrive for the debate on April 19 at the Public Broadcaster’s TV studio and at Olympic Stadium for a debate with Zelensky, provided there is no schedule overlap.

We’ll have to “wait and see” how that one plays out. In the meantime, voter apathy is how many Ukrainian voters express their stance “against all” candidates by not going to the polls. This is a trend not only in Ukraine, but also in the diaspora.

Initial polls have shown Zelensky ahead by a significant lead, but as we’ve seen in the past, even in the United States, pollsters and experts can get things wrong in their prognostications.

It is hoped by many that Poroshenko wins the election, as he is qualified, experienced and has established relationships with world leaders and international organizations, like the EU and NATO. Another boost for the incumbent is his ability to converse intelligibly in English – something nearly all of the other candidates, including Zelensky (who has mostly conversed in Russian, not Ukrainian, similar to ousted former president Viktor Yanukovych), have not demonstrated in public. These combined skills make Poroshenko the clear winner from the diaspora perspective. We can expect to see an uptick of anti-Poroshenko propaganda coming out of Moscow, as Putin has already stated his preference for Zelensky, which should be telling.

Russian meddling could also be seen in anti-Poroshenko text messages sent from Russia to Ukrainian soldiers on the frontlines of the war in the Donbas. The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) has reported that its observers spotted a Russian Leer 3 Electronic Warfare station over Ukrainian territory.

Suspiciously, an investigative journalist report was made public a month before the first round of elections related to corruption from Ukrobronprom (a state-owner military and defense company). Mr. Poroshenko has revived the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukraine’s defense industry in the face of active measures of Russian aggression against Ukraine. It is believed that this report and its timing significantly impacted results for Poroshenko in the first round.

Observers have been critical of Zelensky’s media shyness to the point that certain points need to be raised in the dialogue: Is Zelensky a script reader or a writer? He is clearly not an independent thinker, as his handlers keep him on a tight leash. The April 19 scheduled debate can also turn into political theater, straight out of the Kremlin playbook of making Poroshenko look out of touch with the electorate or worse, being escorted out of the stadium for security reasons if the debate turns into a riot, fanned by Zelensky and his campaign. The late scheduling also plays into the fact that average viewers would not have enough time to process what they were seeing and hearing, with the aim of making a lot of noise that cannot be filtered in such a short lead time to the vote that opinions will not have time to shift much.

Zelensky’s campaign promises to dismiss all of the previous ministers in their posts under the Poroshenko administration. However, it does not take into account the fact that the current prime minister, Volodymyr Groysman, is from the Petro Poroshenko bloc. This could set up a crisis of political stagnation and infighting until the next parliamentary elections (scheduled for October 27 of this year) change the makeup of the Parliament. This buys the Kremlin more time to meddle in Ukraine if Zelensky wins.

Taking all of these factors into account, Zelensky would be bad for Ukraine, as Moscow would like to see Ukraine become the joke it is telling the world Ukraine is, run by a comedian who plays the president on TV. Notably, in the series that Zelensky stars, there is no mention of Russia, the war in the Donbas, the war dead, the victims of MH17, Russia’s annexation of Crimea or other truths and realities, parroting the lies that Moscow would like the world to believe.

What Zelensky appeals to, based on voting results from the first round, is Russian-speakers in Ukraine who would rather take a chance on a political outsider rather than an incumbent like Poroshenko who represents the political establishment and the “old guard” associated with corruption. Some of the “failed promises” and adverse economic trends are wrongly blamed on Poroshenko, when in fact the blame lies with Russia and its attacks against Ukraine. In the end, it is only Russia that can stop the war in the Donbas and it is Russia that needs to return Crimea to Ukraine. Which candidate can motivate Putin to that end (without selling parts of Ukraine in the process), while keeping Ukraine on a positive economic path? The Ukrainian people will decide.

Protests in Europe Call Attention to Sentsov

Things have been largely silent from Ukraine and Russia regarding imprisoned Crimean filmmaker Oleg Sentsov, who is being held in a prison in Russia’s Siberian Yamal region on politically motivated charges related to terrorism for Sentsov’s refusal to accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea as legal.

Recent protests have been documented in France and Slovakia. Ukrainian students in Paris staged a street performance at the Place de la Republique called “Missing Director” to show support for Sentsov. As part of the international campaign “Save Oleg Sentsov.” The event on April 11 was organized by the Ukrainian Leadership Academy. May 10 marks the fifth anniversary of Sentsov’s imprisonment by Russia. In the center of Paris, students set up a film location – they prepared a camera, sound systems, lighting, the production team and actors to shoot a film. To start filming, the assistant director went up to the camera, opened the clapper board but everybody stopped moving. The filming stopped because the main figure on the site – the director – was absent.

"All the participants in the event were standing still for two minutes to show that the artist cannot be a terrorist. Without the artist the process stops. We thus call on the French authorities to help Oleh Sentsov and other political prisoners return home," said Nikita Mekenzin, the main organizer of the event.

Similar events were held on April 11-12 in Berlin, The Hague, Bratislava, Slovakia, Brussels and Prague.

In Bratislava, students of the Ukrainian Leadership Academy staged a walk-out on the city’s Main Square on April 11 to demand the release of Sentsov. Instead of a protest, the street performance “Missing Director” was staged.

In Slovakia, Mr. Mekezin said: “Ukrainian director Oleg Sentsov and more than 97 Ukrainian citizens are now illegally detained in prison in Russia and occupied Crimea. With this action, we will emphasize to the Slovak people that prisoners are still being captured and the pressure on the Russian Federation needs to remain strong until all prisoners are freed.”

The performance is part of the #SaveOlegSentsov action that has been taking place across Europe.

 

Matthew Dubas is editor of the The Ukrainian Weekly. The newspaper is distributed throughout the United States and Canada and serves as a major source of news and information for the Ukrainian-American community. He has reported on many of the country’s political and social conflicts and worked with ambassadors, politicians, policy advisers, activists and scholars on a range of issues concerning Ukraine. The views expressed by Mr. Dubas do not necessarily reflect those of the publication's management or editorial staff.