'Ukrainian Weekly' Editor Issues Warning to Trump, U.S. Officials

"Trust, But Verify" Should Become "Verify First, Don't Trust"  

By Matthew Dubas

In the 1980s during the Cold War (what we are in now is definitely a hot/hybrid war), the U.S. policy with the Soviet Union was "trust, but verify." Today, under President Donald Trump, the policy toward Russia appears to be: have U.S. officials (U.S. Secretary of State, U.S. ambassador to the U.N., WH spokesperson, etc) all except the president condemn Russia's and Putin's blatant violations of international law. Mr. Trump accused President Barack Obama of doing nothing to prevent Russia from stealing Crimea, but what is he doing to prevent Russia from taking the Sea of Azov? 

When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in the late 1970s and 1980s, the U.S. turned the tide of that military occupation with the introduction of arms to increase the cost for the Soviets by downing more warplanes by Stinger missiles. Trump has supplied Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles, which is better than blankets and goggles sent by President Obama, but perhaps some SAMs (surface-to-air missiles) and/or missile defense system would make Putin think twice about his military adventurism in Ukraine.

The EU also has taken a back-footed stance, especially France and Germany (two of the Normandy format members, and arguably the two most influential EU member states), who have said they do not support additional sanctions against Russia for its actions against the Ukrainian navy. Estonia, a postage-stamp-sized NATO and EU member that shares a border with Russia, has advocated for tougher actions - not words - to deter Russia from further violations. Poland and the Baltic states also support tougher action, however, Italy, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece and others have called for a return to business as usual. 

Mr. Trump's cancellation of a meeting with Putin at the G20 in Buenos Aires is a welcomed move, but does not go far enough to punish Russia for its actions and only emboldens further escalation if this is the lone consequence. It is an immature maneuver, similar to the "reset" button that Obama administration officials touted as a solution to a bigger problem. Russia needs to be frustrated by the U.S. response - invite NATO ships to Mariupol and/or Berdyansk, and set up naval escorts for Ukraine's naval and commercial traffic through the Kerch Strait - reaffirming Ukraine's right of safe maritime passage through the strait and effectively ending the economic blockade put in place by Russia. The illegally constructed Kerch bridge is also a limiting factor on the size of ships able to pass through the strait.

Ukraine's moves to declare martial law in 10 regions is a first since the country declared independence in 1991. There are questions that have arisen since then, as some analysts claimed that President Petro Poroshenko was attempting to maintain his hold on the presidency, which was refuted by the Parliament's declaration of March 31, 2019, as the date of presidential elections. Putin will attempt to destabilize the situation in the run-up to the 2019 elections, and an escalation to the conflict is one of those levers at his disposal.

What can we expect to see? An increased NATO naval presence and more frequent demonstrations of air power in the Black Sea region - which also means more chances for confrontation and close calls (Putin loves to play chicken or brinksmanship). Statements of condemnation and solidarity show a unified front, but words have not caused Putin to change course. Germany has said that it does not see a military solution to the conflict, but diplomacy is failing thanks to Russia's efforts to confound the Minsk agreements and a lack of an adequate response from Europe and the U.S. 

Russia's latest deployment of S-400 missile systems in Crimea is another escalation of the tensions, and in Russia's mind, this system is a deterrent against moves to retake Crimea and a power projection in the Black Sea region. The S-400 system saw its combat testing in Syria against civilians and militants. Turkey has voiced interest in purchasing the system, against the declared position of the U.S. and NATO.

President Trump and the U.S. cannot afford to fail at these tests as Russia continues to probe for weaknesses in the Western response. Putin would understand the economic and energy setback resulting from the canceling of the Nord Stream 2 and the Turkish Stream pipelines, which Russia would use to increase Europe's dependency on Russian gas (bypassing Ukraine, denying it transit revenue). Russia has used these projects to manipulate Turkey, Hungary, Austria, Germany and others, who would seemingly benefit. The U.S. should isolate allies of Russia with targeted sanctions against countries and entities which support Russia's claims that Ukraine was guilty of a provocation in the Kerch Strait, as these countries are supporting violations of international law. Another fear of Putin's is the return of Germans on the border with Russia - the old foe of WW II. In the wake of Russia's latest escalation efforts, and echoing the sentiments of U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis, the current U.S. policy toward Russia should be "verify first, don't trust.

Matthew Dubas is editor of the The Ukrainian Weekly, which is distributed throughout the United States and Canada. He has reported on many of the country’s political and social conflicts and worked with ambassadors, politicians, policy advisers, activists and scholars on a range of issues concerning Ukraine. The views expressed by Mr. Dubas do not necessarily reflect those of the publication's management or editorial staff.