Op-Ed: Increased Russian Aggression Catalyzes U.S. Response

By Matthew Dubas

The following commentary is in response to a report published today on From The G-Man, which was entitled Is Renewed Fighting in Ukraine Linked to Trump Taking Office? 

I'm not sure if this has any influence on the story or the spin, but Dmytro Firtash, who is wanted by the FBI and is residing in exile in Austria (which refuses to extradite him to the U.S.), is director for Euronews in Ukraine. Firtash, through his companies OstChem and DF Group has promoted the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, has links to Russia and Putin through energy dealings, as well as Victor Medvedchuk (his daughter's godfather is Putin), who has styled himself as the go-between (a back channel) in Russia-Ukraine negotiations via the Normandy format (France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia) from the failed Minsk agreements.

https://euobserver.com/news/128098 (from 2015)

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/how-to-keep-the-kremlin-and-the-oligarchs-out-of-the-ukrainian-white-house

If there is an uptick in fighting in Ukraine's east, it is more as a result of Russian troops and mercenaries, hardware and weapons being illegally supplied from Russia, rather than what happens in the White House. However, this latest action is more of a provocation by Russia to see how the West, particularly the U.S. responds. Russia recently did some house cleaning with the bombing of Alexander Zakharchenko - the former puppet war lord (and war criminal) of the Russian-occupied Donetsk region - who was killed as a result. A new face plucked from the local populace will maintain the narrative that this is somehow a civil war between Ukrainians and not a Russian invasion orchestrated from the Kremlin.

Russia's latest war games "Vostok" is another distraction and should be more disturbing as it includes Russia, China and Mongolia (a new axis powers?), as are Russia's moves in the Mediterranean and the Azov seas. Russia is attempting to form a naval blockade of the Azov and Black seas to cripple Ukraine's maritime shipping and commerce (and the Kerch bridge built by Russia, connecting Crimea with Russia, limits larger commercial ships from entering Ukrainian ports  of Mariupol and Berdyansk in the Azov Sea). The U.S. is preparing a response to that threat as well, with increased patrols and naval exercises in the Black Sea and Mediterranean with its allies.

The U.S. has also responded with the reactivation of the 2nd U.S. Fleet (on August 24, Ukrainian Independence Day), which is based in Norfolk, Va., and is tasked with patrolling the U.S. east coast, the Arctic and North Atlantic - its flagship is the newly constructed USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier. Previously the 6th fleet, based in the Mediterranean, shared double duty. The 2nd fleet was deactivated in 2011 under President Obama, with the administration claiming that Russia posed no threat. The 2nd fleet was reactivated by President Trump as a direct response to the increased Russian threat.

Are Putin and Trump pursuing brinksmanship or detente? Deterrence through strength? Russia will not be able to sustain a course of brinksmanship with its economy in a downward spiral, making it more dangerous with respect to non-conventional weapons, which Russia has shown it is not afraid to use (chemical weapons, radioactive elements, etc) on foreign soil. Or will we see China step up its military threat and cooperation to ease the burden on Russia? 

And let us not forget the role of the Russian Orthodox Church in Russia's foreign policy goals (a centuries-long relationship that traces back to tsarist days).

https://www.unian.info/politics/10245285-who-was-supposed-to-get-the-glass-video-from-constantinople-talks-raises-questions-amid-novichok-fears.html

Additional link: https://www.rferl.org/amp/volker-says-us-ready-to-widen-arms-supplies-to-ukraine/29465211.html?__twitter_impression=true

Matthew Dubas is an editor for the The Ukrainian Weekly. The newspaper is distributed throughout the United States and Canada and serves as a major source of news and information for the Ukrainian-American community. He has reported on many of the country’s political and social conflicts and worked with ambassadors, politicians, policy advisers, activists and scholars on a range of issues concerning Ukraine. The views expressed by Mr. Dubas do not necessarily reflect those of the publication's management or editorial staff.