Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Can John Kasich Get Traction in the Summer of Donald?

First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
 
Can John Kasich get traction in the Summer of Donald?

If the two-term governor of all-important Ohio -- with a 60% approval rating in his state -- announces a presidential bid and no one hears it, did it really happen? That's John Kasich's challenge as he makes his White House run official today at 11:00 am ET amid all of the Donald Trump headlines. Trump leads nationally in another poll! Trump is running second in Iowa! The Des Moines Register wants Trump out of the race! Trump is still feuding with John McCain! And oh, Donald Trump just killed a guy with a trident! Yes, we made that last one up (it's from "Anchorman"), but you get the point: It's the Summer of Donald, and it's become hard for the other GOP presidential hopefuls to break through. Remember that Scott Walker officially announced his presidential bid last week, and he barely broke through all the Trump news, at least nationally.
 
Two weeks out, Kasich has work to do to make that first GOP debate

And cutting through the Trump noise is doubly important for Kasich since -- as of right now -- he's on the outside looking in of making that first debate next month in his home state. Below are the polling averages from the last five national polls (WaPo/ABC, Fox, USA Today/Suffolk, Monmouth, CNN). And remember that the Top 10 make the debate stage.

  1. Trump - 16.8%
  2. Bush - 14.8%
  3. Walker - 9.8%
  4. Rubio - 6.2%
  5. Huckabee - 6.2%
  6. Paul - 6.2%
  7. Carson - 5.8%
  8. Cruz - 5.2%
  9. Christie - 2.8%
  10. Perry - 2.4%
  11. Santorum - 1.8%
  12. Kasich - 1.6%
  13. Jindal - 1.4%
  14. Fiorina - 0.8%
  15. Graham - 0.2%

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